Poker Hand Analysis: A Step-by-Step Guide

What are we talking about here? Poker hand analysis is a key skill for any player who wants to become a professional. Only at first glance does it seem like something incredibly complicated, incomprehensible. In fact, when you know what to do and how to do it, mastering hand analysis becomes easier than it looks.

How to do it? Start with something simple, study the percentages in the type of game you play the most. You want to figure out all the variables, learn to count outs (cards that may give you the best hand). Training, following the advice of experienced players will help you become the best.

The Order of Dealing Cards in Poker

The rules of dealing in an online game are almost the same as in a live game. However, offline poker has its own peculiarities in this regard.

• In specialized clubs and casinos, a special person shuffles and deals cards to players – a professional dealer. He is also the one who makes sure all the rules are followed.
• Before laying out the common cards on the board, the dealer “burns” the top card. This action eliminates the possibility of fraud.

In online games, the role of dealer goes to AI. Sometimes, the whole process is not even shown. And the actual dealing is performed by the Random Number Generator (RNG).

RNG causes mistrust among beginners and sometimes even experienced players. It is possible that poker room owners rig RNG in a certain way to distribute winnings in a certain way. Here is the time to remember probability theory. For example, it is not obvious to many that even weak starting hands (like 72o) can beat higher pocket pairs. The chances are 12 out of 100.

Online clubs offer an incomparably larger selection of tables and games than their offline alternative. This explains the higher percentage of losses online. And as you know, we remember negative events better than positive ones. Defeats overshadow victories.

The most common type of poker is considered to be Texas Hold’em. Its rules are the main ones to study.

Before analyzing a poker hand, it is important to learn some key rules.

• First, the mandatory bets go in (blinds). After that, the dealer deals two cards face down to each player. In Hold’em, the dealer position (Button) switches to the left every new hand.
• After receiving hole cards, the betting round begins. The player to the left of the big blind is the first to act. If he raises, the following players are to call, re-raise or fold.
• Players act one by one clockwise.
• When preflop round is over, postflop begins. 3 common cards are on the table, which the participants can use to make combinations.
• Then a new round of betting begins.
• The next street is called the “turn”. One more card is added to the three community cards.
• Yet another betting round occurs.
• The last street is called the River. The fifth card is placed at the table. It also can be used to make a hand.
• The game ends with another round of betting and the showdown. The last one standing or the one with the best hand at showdown wins.

Why Analyze Poker Hands

Analyzing your own hands is very important to increase your chances of winning.

With profitable hands, the Poker Tracker HUD might be enough, at least in limit Texas Hold’em. However, to win more often, you need to study the played hands more thoroughly. A full analysis is especially important in the process of learning the game, as well as after a series of losses or when moving to higher stakes. This way, you can identify your own mistakes, improve your strategy and increase your win rate.

It is important for every poker player to study the played games: from a beginner to a professional. Often, such an analysis takes as much time as the game itself. Players look for and correct their mistakes, and determine the weak points of their opponents. If you play strictly in one poker room, the analysis of the played hands provides maximum results, because most often the process takes place with the same opponents, whose actions are easier to predict.

Opponents may give away their hands with some actions, which are called “tells”. Those are also recognized in the process of analysis and contribute to the construction of individual game tactics that differ from generally accepted standards. Knowing the rules of card distribution and possessing analysis skills, you can predict your opponent’s actions with more accuracy and choose more winning lines.

Step-by-step Poker Hands Analysis

Calculating the odds of getting a strong hand is key to developing your gaming skills. It is advisable to take into account a large number of factors, although you can simplify the process to basic arithmetic. By assessing your own chances of winning, a participant will increase the profitability of his game in the long term. Below are some tips to help beginners learn this technique.

Step 1: Learn the percentage calculations for a type of poker you play

The type of game directly affects the way the odds are calculated. For example, seven-card stud uses a different formula than the more popular Texas Hold’em.

Step 2: Consider all the variables

We are talking about the last two cards that can change the board and improve different hands. The estimation is required after the flop stage. At this point, players can see their hole cards and three common ones.

When determining the odds, you only take into account the known data. Do not try to make estimations and predictions on the following cards that are not open yet.

Step 3: Calculating the number of outs

Outs are cards that can strengthen our hand to the desired one. Often the number of outs is not that high. Ideally, we only want outs that improve our hands and not others’. To count these cards, you must first analyze the hand after the flop. Then you assess how you can improve on the following streets.

• No promising cards. If your cards are lower than the board and you have no potential flush outs, then you can only hope for a pair (6 outs). For example, a player holds a five and a nine. There are 3 more fives and 3 more nines in the deck.
• A pocket pair. If there’s even one overcard on the board, the chances of winning are not that high. If we are behind, we only have 2 outs for a set.

• Two overcards. For example, an ace and a queen on a 9-high board. In this case, we have 6 outs (3 aces and 3 queens).
• Flush draw. For example two diamonds in hand and two more on the table, flush draw gives us 9 outs.
• Combo-draw (flush and straight draw combined). Let’s say we have JTd. The board is 984 with two diamonds. It gives us 15 outs, 9 for a flush and 6 for a straight.

Step 4: Determining the probability to hit on the very next runout

When you only have one more card to come and you want to know your chances to improve, it’s easy to calculate. There are 46 cards left, 52 cards in the deck -2 pocket cards -3 flop cards -1 turn card. Now you just divide the number of outs you have by 46.

Step 5: Determining the probability of improving from the flop to the river

In this case, the calculations are not that simple.

• To find the chances of making a flush draw, you should subtract the number of outs from the number of cards remaining on the turn, and then divide the result by the first value. This is how it looks: (47-9) / 47 = 0.81.
• Let’s say that before the river the player also has 9 outs. There are 46 cards left in the deck. We perform the same operation: (46-9) / 46 = 0.8.
• The resulting values must be multiplied by each other: 0.81 x 0.8 = 0.65.
• To determine the probability, we perform the operation: 1-0.65 = 0.35. Thus, the player will improve his flush draw to a full flush in 35 cases out of 100.

Step 6: Converting probability to odds

In Texas Hold’em, this step is very important, since the odds allow the player to understand whether to stay in the hand or not. The algorithm is as follows:

• The percentage is converted to an integer expression (24 % becomes 24).
• 100 is divided by the resulting number (in our example – 100/24 = 4.17).
• The result is rounded to an integer (in our example – 4).
• Now we subtract one from this number (The result for our example – 3 to 1).

Step 7: Calculating pot odds

Pot odds in poker terminology is the probability of getting the required hand under which we end up breakeven. The parameter is expressed as a percentage. Professionals usually compare pot odds with equity before betting on the turn and river.

If the second parameter exceeds the first, you need to bet. Let’s look at a specific example.

• After betting on the flop, the total pot is 50 $. The player then bets another 10 $.
• The next opponent must call the bet to stay in the game.
• The current pot odds are 5 to 1.
• The opponent determines the equity of his hand. Let’s say it’s worse than 5 to 1 (or 16.7 %). The player decides to fold.

How to Analyze Poker Hands Correctly

It is advisable to do this immediately after the end of the session. Mostly people analyze the hands involving the hero and with big pots. Player studies the hands he played, taking into account possible opponents’ ranges, determining the optimal solution and comparing it to what he actually did in the hand. You can also use special software to make the analytical process faster and to analyze the game on a deeper level.

You can start the study at the preflop stage. However, there are preflop charts that are perfect for the beginners and even intermediate players. They can be used to check whether it is worth opening a hand or not. Starting hands charts take into account the current position of the player and the actions of the opponents. This tool significantly simplifies the analysis before the flop.

In addition, Poker Studio or Poker Stove are also great tools for fixed limit Texas Hold’em. Here you enter your hand and the villain’s perceived range. The programs calculate the pot odds. Those things give 100 % accurate results. In no-limit hold’em, the possibility of improving hands on the flop is more important.

It is also necessary to take into account the playing styles of opponents and their bet sizes. SnG tournaments are different because most of the decisions are made pre-flop. In these games, it is useful to use special push/fold trainers such as SnG Wizard.

Subsequent streets (flop and turn) give you more information in terms of possible improvements and odds, which is crucial for the postflop analysis. It is also necessary to calculate discounted odds. Whenever opponents make a move, it shrinks their ranges a bit. It is easier to evaluate ranges on the turn than on the flop, since by this point we have more information.

In general, the analysis is performed as follows: the probable combinations of the opponent are determined, compared with your own hand and possibilities of improving, and a decision is made. Same method works for no-limit games as well. The difference is that we compare odds to the villain’s whole stack and not just the pot.

Folding a hand on the river with 1 to 10 pot odds is a grave mistake. According to professionals, no more than 10 % of poker players bluff on this street. Even with a mediocre hand, you need to call the opponent’s bet with 1 to 10 pod odds.

Analyzing poker hands during a session is actually a normal thought process for a player who has enough time to make calculations and estimates, including using calculators. Same process out of tables differs primarily in its psychological aspect. Beginners often mistakenly focus on the result. Only a few players can ignore the actual result of the hand and focus on the actions and ranges only.

Being results-oriented leads to a lot of mistakes.

• Folding cards in response to an aggressive move by an opponent that turned out to be a bluff.
• Slowly playing a set heads-up against an opponent and allowing him to improve.
• Aggressive play with two pairs on each street only to lose to a straight eventually.
• Calling or raising top-pairs when the villain clearly has a set.

When the opponent’s hand is known, determining the optimal game tactics is significantly easier. However, we can’t exclude other options. It is necessary to analyze the hand only on the basis of information known at the moment. This is easier to do a couple of days after the end of the game. On the other hand, during this period, some important data about the opponents may be forgotten.

Knowledge of the opponent’s future actions also often interferes with objective analysis. For example, a player folds in response to an aggressive bet by an opponent. It turns out later that the opponent is a “maniac”. This fact cannot be taken into account during the post-session analysis due to its unknown nature during the game. Those details can easily swing us to one decision or another.

When analyzing the game, you need to forget about its results for a while, but use the information about your opponents that you had at that time. In difficult cases, it is useful to use specialized software in your work that allows you to calculate your chances as accurately as possible. Poker players also practice discussing specific game situations on forums. Joint analysis without announcing the result also helps to identify mistakes.

In what Order to Analyze Poker Hands

In the analysis, among other things, it is important to establish the order of hands to analyze, to set priorities. This is the opinion of, in particular, the famous coach Nathan Williams. He is convinced that there is no point in wasting time on bad beats and coolers. These types of hands are beyond control and can happen to any player.

Marking hands during a session

It is useful to mark spots during the game to identify things you want to work on, so you can come back to it after the game. When starting to analyze hands, one of the main goals is to put the villain on a range.

The answers to the following questions will help in this:

• What range can the opponent have given his tactics, the history of the game with this opponent and the general texture of the board?
• Have you played the most profitable line relative to the supposed range of the opponent and your own?

As a result of such an analysis, you need to not only identify your mistakes, but also formulate the most profitable order of actions during the game. In this case, the potential villain’s range and the texture of the board should definitely be taken into account.

This analytical work can be done both independently and with the help of a professional. However, experienced poker players try to analyze the hands themselves.

Analysis of spots with large wins or losses

Here we mean postflop hands where 100 big blinds or more went into the pot. This analysis is important primarily for beginners.

Analysis of spots with large losses is especially relevant for players who tend to play overpairs and top pairs to the end against obvious stronger hands. Over time, a useful habit of folding cards in a timely manner is developed, even if it contradicts intuition.

If a player is not sure that he is getting enough benefit from strong hands, analyzing large won pots will add confidence.

Analysis of spots with medium and small wins and losses

This category includes hands with a pot of 30-100 big blinds. These spots are also great to analyze for beginners. This is where newbies make a lot of mistakes: thin value bets are not implemented, poor choice of hands for the river betting range.

To correctly analyze the hand, the player must decide whether he could have won more (or lost less) if he had predicted the opponent’s card range differently.

3 Questions to Help Analyze a Poker Hand

Independent analysis of your own hands is a key skill for every poker player. For example, this is what co-author of the publications “Poker Satellite Strategy” and “PKO Poker Strategy” Dara O’Kearney is convinced of. He is also known as the host of the podcast The Chip Race.

To develop this skill, as well as to extract the maximum benefit from independent analysis, O’Kearney suggests that poker players answer 3 questions in sequence. Let’s look at each of them below.

What do your and villain’s ranges look like?

You should be ready with an answer on this one already at the preflop stage. Ideally, we also want to calculate Equity and EV. Next, it is necessary to determine the expected flops on which the ranges will play well.

The purpose of this entire analysis is to find out the advantages of one player over another in terms of ranges. It is also advisable to take into account the strength of individual hands even if the overall range is weak.

Is this table suitable for playing?

This question comes after studying the preflop ranges. We want to know who we are facing at the table.

If we have a player that always cbets, for example, it is a good sign for us, because this strategy has not worked since about 2005.

Today, it is all about who’s range hits the board better.

How to play your own range?

A player who correctly answers this question is already a step above the average amateur. Here, it is important to consider the priority of your own range over a specific hand. It is in this context that the analysis of the current task takes place.

Poker Hand Analysis Method by Matt Affleck

Below we will take a closer look at an interesting tactic used by American coach Matt Affleck. At the end of each tournament, he analyzes and replays all of the hands where he entered the pot. Then he comments on each one.

This is how he analyzes his decisions.

Preflop

Both players’ ranges are analyzed and compared. At the same time, Affleck asks himself how often and for what reason he folds hands included in the opening range.

When analyzing preflop spots, the coach always carefully studies push / fold / all-in spots. For example, he folds unsuited seven and deuce, being in the Cutoff position with 10 big blinds. Similar situations are checked with all-in of 10 BB and higher, and the presumably weakest hand for all-in is also identified. He then goes over a couple of options and compares them using a calculator.

Postflop

This stage is given maximum attention, since this is where, in Matt’s opinion, the essence of poker tournaments is concealed.

First, he goes over spots where postflop lines are not easy to assess. For example, it is sometimes difficult to determine ranges when villain suddenly makes an aggressive or non-typical move.

To understand theory on a deeper level, it is pretty much necessary to use solvers. However, don’t try to simply copy the solver’s strategy, it’s a path to nowhere.

Decisions:

• Whether to always make a continuation bet or not to bet at all.
• Should you use a “check-raise” or is it better to stick to the “call-fold” tactic.

Next, Matt analyzes the villain’s strategy. To do this, we can simply look at the solver’s range and compare it to what we face in a real game. It is important in this case to determine the degree of similarity between the predicted strategy and the real one.

When running the sims, it is important to make little adjustments. This way we can see how different options affect our ranges and actions. For example, you can change the stack sizes, turn and river cards and observe how this affects the strategy as a whole.

How to Analyze Hands in Poker Rooms

In most cases, rooms provide the ability to save the history of hands in order to use this information later in poker trackers. The most popular tools for analysis are:

• Holdem Manager 3.
• PokerTracker 4.
• Hand2Note.

In these trackers, you can analyze:

• The most difficult hands. We want to analyze the hands that caused difficulties during the game. It is useful to return to these situations to improve your skills.

• The largest pots. In this context, the ones we lost are of primary interest. Postflop hands are of the greatest importance, although preflop hands are also important to analyze.

Auxiliary poker trackers perform a number of functions:

• Maintaining a database to study interesting hands at any time.
• Displaying statistical information on opponents and thereby providing an advantage over players who do not use such software.
• Converting data from text form to graphical form for a more pleasant experience.

Almost all professional players use auxiliary software where possible. However, in some rooms (for example, PokerDom and PokerOk) this is not possible. Therefore, in addition to trackers, separate programs like FlopZilla are very popular. This software allows you to not only improve your own postflop game, but also teaches you to “think in ranges”. According to many professionals, it is the second skill that is key in poker.

What else can help improve your poker skills?

Here are some other effective and accessible ways for poker players to improve their game.

• Reading poker books, watching training videos

Among beginner poker players, the main source of useful information are poker books. It is recommended to be careful with literature published 10-15 years ago, since poker strategies are developing quickly and quickly becoming outdated. However, basic rules and concepts can be studied there.

• Communication with other players

In the professional world, it is important to communicate with like-minded people around the world. Not everyone has experienced poker players in their inner circle.

• Training in poker schools and with coaches

The fastest way to achieve success is individual coaching sessions. For those who have just started to learn the game, it is advisable to join a backing fund with poker school. Here you can not only learn, but also earn your first money. True, for such a process you will have to give a certain percentage of the profit.

Frequently Asked Questions about Poker Hand Analysis

What are the secrets of poker hand analysis?

There is a method for calculating the odds of a hand quickly. You need to multiply the number of outs by 4 on the flop, or by 2 on the turn.

It is important not to overestimate the results. Sometimes cards contribute to two or more hands. For example, we have a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw. It may seem that we have 17 outs, when in reality it’s only 15, because 2 of the straight outs are also flush outs.

There are cases when an out is tainted, since it helps other player. For example, you manage to get an open-ended straight draw, but three cards of the same suit are on the flop. On one hand, the player has 8 outs to make a straight, on the other hand, two of those are of the same suit as the board. Therefore, the number of outs should be reduced to 6.

Why is it necessary to adjust the opponent’s hand range?

Each move of the opponent narrows his range. Adjustment is also necessary because the opponent’s actions will be determined by a specific game situation.

How does EV work?

EV is how much money a player should win or lose in a certain spot theoretically. Game situation determines each player’s EV. The greater the number of decisions made with a positive Expected Value, the larger the winnings will be in the long run.

And vice versa, with the increase in situations with a negative EV, the player’s losses will also increase. Hence the conclusion: it is necessary to adhere to those strategies that maximize the EV (and thereby maximize the player’s specific profit).

So, to analyze poker hands, you need to have experience and the ability to read your opponents’ strategy. Any beginner poker player can learn this over time.