Mastering Outs in Online Poker — Learn to Count and Apply Them Effectively

In poker, everything boils down to calculations—math is as crucial as bankroll management or mental resilience. You don’t need a PhD in mathematics to figure out your odds of winning. Knowing a few principles and applying simple formulas is enough. Understanding outs lets players calculate win probabilities in each hand, especially when missing specific cards or suits to complete a strong combination. In this article, we’ll tackle this key topic, using clear examples and core concepts to illustrate outs in poker.

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What Are Outs in Poker?

Outs are cards still in the deck that can improve your hand. For example, if you have an incomplete flush draw, there are 9 cards of that suit left in the deck to complete your flush. Note that this assumes none of your opponents hold those cards.

Imagine you hold K♥Q♥, with a board of J♥10♥4♦. Several cards could strengthen your hand:

• Any ace or nine gives you a straight, likely the best hand.
• Any heart completes a flush, with A♥ or 9♥ forming a royal flush or straight flush, respectively.
• Any remaining queen or king gives you a pair, which might win depending on your opponent’s hand.

Now that we’ve defined outs in poker, let’s learn how to count them.

How to Count Outs in Poker

Counting outs is straightforward. Using our example, for a flush with K♥Q♥, there are 13 cards of one suit, 4 of which you already see (2 in your hand and 2 on the board). So, 13 – 4 = 9 outs. If you need a king for a set, with 2 kings in your hand, only 2 outs remain.

Let’s count the outs for K♥Q♥ on a J♥10♥4♦ board:

• Three aces for a straight: 3 outs
• Three nines for a straight: 3 outs
• A♥ and 9♥ for a royal/straight flush: 2 outs
• Seven hearts for a flush: 7 outs
• Three queens for a pair: 3 outs
• Three kings for a pair: 3 outs

Total: 21 outs—one of the highest possible in Texas Hold’em. While kings and queens only yield a pair, which isn’t guaranteed to win, most other outs lead to a top or near-top hand.

The process is simple: it requires basic counting and visualizing which cards improve your hand. Remember, each rank has exactly 4 cards, and each suit has 13. Account for cards you already see and avoid double-counting outs (e.g., don’t count A♥ and 9♥ for both flush and straight).

Common Out Calculations in Poker

Counting outs is critical in common scenarios, and pros know these by heart. You can too, by memorizing this table and understanding what each combination means in terms of outs:

This table counts outs yielding at least a top pair, but lower pairs can sometimes help. Backdoor draws (e.g., three cards to a flush or straight) count as partial outs, adding slight expected value (EV) to your hand.

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Applying Outs in Poker: Calculating Your Equity

Knowing how to count outs is just the start. The next step is using them to calculate your equity—the percentage of times you’ll hit an out and improve your hand.

Equity is found by dividing your outs by the remaining deck cards. On the flop, you see 5 cards (your 2 and the board’s 3), leaving 47 unseen cards.

With 12 outs, your chance of hitting on the turn is 12/47, or about 25%. For flop equity, factoring in two cards (turn and river), your equity is roughly 50%.

These numbers don’t account for your opponent’s hand, which could also improve, but they give a close estimate of your true equity, typically within a few percentage points.

Now, let’s explore an even simpler way to estimate hand equity without complex ratios.

The Rule of Two and Four: A Quick Way to Estimate Hand Equity

Calculating exact equity mid-hand can be tough and imprecise. The Rule of Two and Four offers a fast, simple alternative with comparable results.

It’s as easy as it sounds: multiply your outs by 4 on the flop or by 2 on the turn. The result approximates your equity in seconds.

Example: You hold 10♠9♠ against A♣A♦ on a 7♠4♠2♥ board. Your flush draw gives 9 outs. On the flop, 9 × 4 = 36. A Texas Hold’em odds calculator shows your real equity is 38.8%. If the turn is K♣, your equity drops to ~20%. Using the rule, 9 × 2 = 18%, slightly lower.

By multiplying outs, you get quick estimates during play, avoiding tricky calculations that risk errors. Compare this to pot odds, and you’ll know the right move in any hand.

While not perfect, this equity estimate is usually close enough to guide whether your hand justifies continuing.

However, with more outs, the Rule of Two and Four loses accuracy, so there’s another formula for those cases.

Calculating Equity with More Than 9 Outs

As outs increase, the Rule of Two and Four diverges from true equity, making it less reliable with over 9 outs.

Instead, use this formula:

Equity = (Outs × 4) – (Outs – 8)

Revisiting our earlier example with 21 outs:

Equity = (21 × 4) – (21 – 8)

Equity = 84 – 13

Equity = 71%

This is remarkably close to the actual equity. With K♥Q♥ against 5♠5♣ on a J♥10♥4♦ board, your 21 outs give exactly 71.11% equity, assuming all outs are clean.

Compare this to the Rule of Two and Four, which yields 84%—far higher than reality. The adjusted formula is far more accurate for high-out scenarios.

Final Thoughts on Counting Outs

You’ve learned quick ways to calculate equity from outs, both for fewer than 9 and more than 9 outs. Here are final considerations:

• Dirty outs: Some outs may seem helpful but won’t guarantee the best hand (e.g., hitting a top pair that’s still beat).
• Backdoor draws: These add slight equity but can’t be counted directly as outs. With a backdoor straight or flush draw alongside your main draw, add a couple of percentage points to your equity.
• Opponent’s range: Equity is simple with open cards. In real games, estimate your opponent’s range and calculate equity against it.
• Multiway pots: With multiple players, others may hold your outs or have stronger draws. Discount your outs’ value unless they give the nuts.
• Implied odds: Hitting an out often wins the pot, but consider future betting rounds—extra winnings if your hand improves.

Mastering outs is one of the easiest ways to apply math in poker for better results. Study this concept, and use it next time you’re at the table.

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Outs knowledge alone won’t take you far—online poker success requires multiple elements, including specialized software. HisHands and Statname unlock new ways to analyze your game and understand opponents.

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