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EV is the basis of the game, which allows you to play profitably in the long run. Every advanced and experienced player should know what EV is in poker and the methods for calculating it, so in this article we will consider absolutely everything related to this topic.
What is Expected Value in Poker?
The abbreviation EV comes from the term “Expected Value”. Any poker player must consider the benefit of a particular action before making a decision at the table. EV or expected value represents what to expect from a situation, whether we should make some money or we mostly lose.
How to Calculate EV
Any action of a poker player can potentially have positive or negative expectations. For example, if a player called a shove preflop with pocket aces against pocket kings, then he has 4 to 1 odds to win.
EV Formula:
The best way to show how EV estimation works is to give an example. Imagine that two friends decided to flip a coin several times. For every time heads come up, one player gives $1 to another, and every time tails come up, another one gives $1. According to probability theory, everyone has an equal chance of winning. The EV here is zero for both players. So no one is supposed to win anything if we toss the coin an infinite amount of times.
Now a similar example with slightly different conditions. If heads come up player 1 pays $2, if tails come up player 2 pays $1. Since the probability of getting heads and tails is equal, it is obvious that player 2 will win in the long run. So, according to expected value, this game is a losing game for player 1.
Let’s calculate the expected value for this example assuming that we toss the coin 100 times and both heads and tails come up exactly 50 times each. EV = ($2 x 50 + (-$1 x 50)): 100 = $0.50. That means that for player 2 each toss brings $0.50 for each toss. For the other participant, each toss takes away these 50 cents.
How to Find out EV for a Day, Week or Month
Expected value depends directly on the distance. Let’s take the previous example with a coin. The chances of getting heads or tails are 50%. However, if we toss a coin only 10 times, we can easily get like 6 heads. Then one can mistakenly think that the chances of getting heads is 60%.
To get closer to the actual EV numbers, we need more trials, longer distances. Let’s say we toss a coin 100 times. The more trials we have, the bigger the volume, the longer the distance, the closer we get to the actual EV frequencies.
Let’s turn to a poker example. Say we have a very strong hand. The opponent has only 1-2% to win, so we feel confident and make a large bet. The opponent calls and the card he needs comes on the river. We are shocked, since the chances of getting this exact card were slim to none. Moreover, our bet was absolutely justified, but we still lost. It is necessary to remember that such situations are normal in poker. Just keep on playing and with enough volume you will get closer to expected value. Remember that even he won this time, he still loses 99 times out of a 100. This just was this one time.
Expected Value of a Call, Fold and All-in
It is important to see the whole picture and not focus on the outcome of one hand. You should only continue playing only when EV is positive, otherwise you should fold. And even if you make a positive EV move, but still lose, accept it as something normal and move on. Don’t panic and don’t tilt. Professional players know that such moments are common in poker. In the long run, all these losses are smoothen out by even bigger wins.
Let’s imagine that we have a flush draw on the flop. The pot is $2, we bet $1. Villain raises to $3. We have only $4 left in his stack. Should we call? How can we estimate EV for this spot?
There are three options available to us:
- Call the raise.
- Fold.
- Go all-in.
Let’s consider each decision separately.
Call
If we call the raise, there are 2 possible outcomes:
- We make a flush on the turn, we shove, villain folds.
- We don’t make the flush, villain shoves and we still call based on pot odds. If we hit the flush on the river, we make $12. If not, we lose everything.
Let’s calculate EV for the second outcome.
EV = 2$ (the amount we call) + 0.192 (the probability of hitting a flush on the turn) * 8 (size of the pot we win) + (1 – 0.192) [the chances of us not hitting the flush] * (EV of the following street).
Now we estimate EV on the river. 2 (turn call) + 0.196 (the probability of hitting a flush on the river) * $12 (the amount we win) + (1 – 0.196) [probability of not hitting the flush] * 0 (we win nothing in this case).
So the river EV is +0.352.
If we put it into the formula, we get a total EV of our flop call equal -$0.18. It means calling is not profitable. And we know how much we lose by calling on average.
Fold
When we fold, we end the hand for us, winning and losing nothing after that. Hence, EV of folding is always 0.
All-in
If we shove, then the villain folds 30% of hands and calls 70%. If he calls, we have 35% to hit the flush, in which case we win $12. Otherwise, we lose everything.
Let’s calculate the EV. $4 (our shove) + 0.3 (times villain folds) * $10 (pot size after the shove) + 0.7 (times villain calls) * (our equity).
Now let’s estimate our equity. 0.35 (times we hit a flush) * $12 (pot size) + 0.65 (times we miss) * $0 (we lose). The total is $4.2.
If we put this number in the original formula, we get a total EV of +$1.94. It means that the most profitable option is to go all-in. This shove will on average bring us $2 every time we do it.
What Does $EV Diff Mean?
EV Difference is a term often found in poker software, where it is designated as EV$Diff. It does not help us during the game, but reflects the deviation of our results from actual expected value. Meaning how much did we win or lose compared to what we were supposed to win or lose according to EV.
EV$Diff Formula:
EV$Diff can be negative or positive. Here are some examples:
- Negative. The poker player should have won N amount, but won >N. With an EV of $100, he actually won $150, then EV$Diff is -$50.
- Negative. The poker player should have lost N amount, but won X. The EV is -$100, he won $150, then EV$Diff is -$250.
- Positive. The expected EV was N, and the actual win was 0. The EV was $100, and the player won 0 chips. EV$Diff is +$100. There is no consensus among poker pros on how to use this number, because EV$Diff is the result of the action that has already been taken. The main version is that this indicator is necessary for analyzing the game. Based on it, at the end of the hand, the player can evaluate whether he played correctly or not. For example, if he won $200, and EV$Diff is -300, then he just made a mistake and got lucky.
How to Increase EV
These recommendations will help you to get the most of using EV calculations:
- To correctly predict the outcome of the game, you need to read your opponent well. You need to know, at least the ballpark numbers, his frequencies and tendencies;
- Practice estimating EV outside the tables. Calculate 20 spots every day to get a better grasp. It will help you to estimate EV in the game faster;
- If you can’t calculate EV on the go, you should do all the calculations manually by hand on a piece of paper. It is worth devoting a lot of time to this issue, because it is EV in poker that provides a stable profitable game.
The Difference between EV and Chip EV
Chip Expected Value is the number of chips that a player can expect from a specific action. This indicator shows how much chips we expect to win or lose. Chip EV is the EV we are used to, which is used in cash games. When a player calculates pot odds to decide whether to call with a flush draw, the Chip Expected Value is considered. While the $EV (Expected Value In Dollars) we mentioned is used only in tournaments to help a poker player convert tournament chips into real money.
Briefly about the HisHands Service and its Benefits
The HisHands service is an indispensable tool for analyzing hands and calculating the EV (expected value) of your actions. After purchasing hand history mining, you can use it to analyze the hands you played in detail, determining how effective certain decisions were. HisHands allows you to evaluate not only the profitability of a certain move, but also its long-term impact on your result. This is especially important for developing an optimal strategy and minimizing the number of mistakes in the game.
With accurate EV analysis, you can identify weaknesses in your game and adjust your approach in similar situations. HisHands hand history mining provides statistics on hand ranges, opponents’ actions, and your own behavior, helping you determine the best lines and strategies. Contact us on Telegram or Skype and get the best offer on the market!
Conclusion
EV in poker helps players understand whether their action at the table is profitable or not. It is important to evaluate your chances in the long run and ignore random bad beats. Beginners who have not yet mastered poker mathematics and find this material difficult to understand can use a less accurate but simple way to determine the profitability of actions in poker – calculating pot odds and comparing them with the chances of winning. We hope that this material will help increase your profit!
